Build the Nobel Peace Prize for a while.
President Donald Trump entered office and promised a quick end for two wars in Gaza and Ukraine. He accepted radically different approaches to all conflicts than Joe Biden and in some boxes brought results.
What he did not do is the end of the war. In fact, this weekend seemed that the solution of both conflicts seemed further than ever.
The fragile ceasefire in Gaza, which came into force shortly before he took over the office, broke after Israel founded and the master, who, according to the Minister of Health in Gaza, killed more than 400 people, and renewed extensive ground operations. Hamas also continued to launch missiles into the middle Israel, and the situation quickly slips back into the war with a full -fledged war.
Also this week, during a telephone call with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin effectively rejected the proposed 30 -day ceasefire, to which Ukraine had agreed under the American press before. Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop the attacks on the second second energy infrastructure, but it did not stop the mass attacks of drones from both sides, including a Russian attack on a hospital that occurred just a few hours after the announcement of the pause.
Both sides will be organized next week – through American intermediaries – in Saudi Arabia and the Trump team is postponed in the hope that it will quickly move towards a full ceasefire, but the significant difference between the negotiation positions of both parties remains. So, with the exception of a miracle at the negotiating table, the war in Ukraine does not seem to be closer to the resolution night she did in January. War in Gaza seems to be further from one.
What does it tell us? First, an important point of the goal: the end of the wars is Haerd. Hamas and Israel still have an essentially incompatible request for a final ceasefire. Putin has not given any hint, Eith in his public statements or in US intelligence assessments that he is interested in ending war with anything other than the Ukrainian surrender.
It would be unrealistic to expect any US administration to end two unsolvable foreign wars in the first two months. If Trump is held on this standard, it is only because he himself suggested that his campaign could end the war in Ukraine for “24 hours”, the promise he said this week could be “a little sarcastic”. It also shows the limits for Trump’s insistent style of diplomacy.
Status of things in Gaza and Ukraine, briefly explained
In Gaza, Trump started strong in January, when the enemy president team worked with the leaving Biden administration to ensure a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
The Biden administration officials, regional, regulated the credited Trump ENV in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, with pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a compromise, which was missing in the approach of the Biden team for months.
However, this agreement was only the “first phase” of a ceasefire, which was to last six weekends, which dared to negotiate that Israel and Hassas were to negotiate a permanent end of hostility. The first phase recorded the release of 33 Israeli hostages and almost 1,800 Palestinian prisoners, but at the beginning of March it expired without supervision.
In principle, Israel is not willing to agree with any permanent settlement that Hamas leaves on the spot, and is also not willing to count the Palestinian authority that deals with the administration of the band, as Biden’s administration wanted. Hamas is not willing to disarm, unlikely to give up the remaining hostages that are his hands that remain a source of lever effect, and will probably not be influenced by the prospect of killing Palestinian civilians.
Trump, races, had other ideas on how to resolve the conflict, suggesting that the US should take over the ownership of Gaza, “clean” its civilian population and extend it as a beach resort.
And so the ceasefire now has an effective life. The restart of the war allowed Netanyahu to reconstruct his right -wing government and avoid early elections. At least for the moment he has full support for Trump’s administration. Meanwhile, he has a brief relaxation in the suffering of people in Gaza and the hope for the remaining hostages dims.
In Ukraine, it is now about five weeks of Trump, which increased Trump by starting direct negotiations with Russia – without the presence of Ukraine – closely watching television public dressing of Ukrainian President Votodyr Zlenskyy in an oval office, an oval office, providing weapons and intelligence cooperation with Ukraine. It seems that many seem to have changed the US’s approach to conflict, but changing parties.
In the end, however, it is not clear how much the drama has actually changed after a month of drama. The war rages as sharply as everyone, and after a short break, the US has restored weapons supplies. Recent events could eventually have a greater effect on American relations with Europe Thave on the War race: NATO Allies question the long -term security of the alliance, and the heads of state are forced to doubt everywhere that they really want to visit the White House the risk of giving away Vance.
Probably the Ukrainians won a rhetorical victory by agreeing to the ceasefire that the Russians then refused. This could also strengthen the case of more Ukrainian-sympathetic members of the administration. Before the Moscow’s agreement, Foreign Minister Macro Rubio said “Ball is now with a Russian court” and that “if they say no, we will unfortunately know what is the obstacle to peace.”
In the meantime, however, there is something that the White House is preparing to develop any press to Russia to accept a wider ceasefire, and can actually prepare other concessions on behalf of Ukraine. Unlike his treatment with Zlenskyy Trump, he said nothing postitive about his interactions with Putin. Witkoff, a New York developer of real estate, turned a universal diplomat, which is now Trump’s point man in the Middle East and Ukraine, prevents Russian drones from blowing by saying that they have entered a pause and promising potential energy cooperation in the US-Rusia.
Trump’s diplomacy “Break Stuff”
Trump’s willing Grande breaks the standards and radical shift policy can sometimes bring diplomatic results.
His threats to pull US troops from Syria gave the US military lever to negotiate an agreement between the Kurdish forces in Syria and the new government of the country, at least so far, a new deadly conflict that Mary feared after the fall of Assad’s regime.
Trump was criticized for talking directly to Puttin in Ukraine and recently when his sending was negotiating directly with Hassas over an American citizen held by Hosage. .
Yet, as far as Ukraine is concerned, Trump and his officials only publicly recognize what Biden Team has recognized: that Ukraine is unlikely to re -make all its territories by military resources, by IS support.
When Trump launched interviews with Russia in February, Samuel Charap, analyst Rand Corporation and an official of the Foreign Ministry who defended negotiations on the end of the war, told me that Trump was “demoniating political will to restore bilateral channels.”
Similarly, in Gaza, Trump’s administration came into an office with a ceasefire at a place for which they could claim some credit – but now he seems to have given up.
“There is a certain advantage that it is completely unused from common conventions such as Trump Administration. Blow-up direct conversations between the US and Hamas.”
Both attitudes combined in January, said to achieve the initial ceasefire of the gazne.
Finally, it may be a limitation of Trump’s approach, as often disconnected from reality. Trump’s dreams of fever Ai-constructed fever about the beach resort of Gaza have dispersed from work on the development of a real feasible plan for the future of Gaza and legitimized the most extreme goals of Israeli anxisic law.
Some Trump officials included the national security that advised Mike Waltz, that Trump’s nonsensical vision was a press tactic that caused regional governments to come up with their own solutions.
However, when the Arab government did exactly that, it introduced its own (confessional) plan of the reconstruction of the Gaza at the beginning of March, the White House immediately refused it and held Trump’s vision of the Levantin “Riviery” cleaned Palestinians. As with Greenland and Canada, Trump seems to be serious about it.
In Ukraine, Trump’s views on conflict seem to be difficult to be influenced by Russia himself, or at least his sympathizers in the US, including his inaccurate comments, which indicate that it was a war Ukraine and that Zelenkyy was a highly unpopular “dictator”.
Recently, he claimed that Ukrainian troops were “surrounded” in the Russian province and threatened to be massacre. This emerges with Putin’s own claims about the situation in Kursk, but not an American intelligence assessment. (Ukrainian forces in Kursk are constantly losing land but not surrounded.)
More fancifully consists that Puttin is interested in ending the war and that it is only a matter of Ukraine that will forward the territory, despite little evidence that this is the case.
Trump’s unpredictable approach and willingness to violate unwritten rules of international diplomacy can sometimes help to get opponents to speak. However, it is difficult to obtain real results without involving the reality of the situation.